Unless humans stop producing carbon tomorrow – which would require something as momentous as an asteroid obliterating the planet, quipped a University of Maine scientist – Maine will experience enough climate change in the next 100 years to affect nearly every living thing.
That’s the finding at the core of a study on Maine’s climate future, which was presented to Gov. John Baldacci last week following more than a year of analysis by 75 experts and scholars in everything from biology to hydrology to meteorology. Fortunately for the state, said University of Maine Professor Emeritus George Jacobson, who led the study, all of the participants also shared another area of expertise: Maine.
Foresters will harvest fewer spruce and fir trees as the southernmost tip of those species moves north with cooler weather. Farmers will enjoy longer growing seasons and more precipitation.
Fishermen will catch fish traditionally found farther south, and shellfish harvesters might notice the shells of their catch becoming thinner. Meteorologists will notice an average temperature that’s more than five degrees higher, as well as more frequent and powerful weather events. And, Mainers from York to Fort Kent will notice a blurring or movement of the lines between the seasons.
“The fact is, the changes are significant enough that all of the species that live in Maine are likely to be affected in either their distribution or their abundance or both,” said Jacobson during a press conference where he and dozens of his colleagues presented their work. “The chemistry of the ecosystems will change…and therefore the ecosystems that you recognize will not be the same 100 years from now.”
Baldacci ordered the 70-page report, titled “Maine’s Climate Future: An Initial Assessment,” in 2007.
The report, done on a volunteer basis at no direct cost to state government, traces Maine’s climate past, present, and future using conservative, “middle-of-the-road” assumptions about the severity of the problem and humankind’s ability to correct it, said Jacobson.
Professor Paul Majewski, director of the University of Maine’s Climate Change Institute, a key player in preparing the report, said the job of assessing and predicting climate change is an ongoing one.
“We’re discovering new things all the time,” he said. “We know that the way we think [about] the climate will evolve over the next 100 years. We really want to stay engaged with discovery. This is an evolving issue.”
Baldacci said data in the study will be used frequently as the state moves forward with energy initiatives, including the creation of a green energy economy. The Legislature and outside groups are working on, or gearing up for a range of projects, including a major energy initiative Baldacci will unveil in the coming weeks.
“You can’t help but think of long-range impacts when you look at this report,” Baldacci said. “I think it’s going to be an effective tool to help merge the green economy and technologies of energy efficiency and domestic renewable energy. It’s a sobering report.”
A bipartisan group of legislators have sponsored a resolve to establish a study group to prepare for climate change in Maine. Baldacci named David Littell, commissioner of the Maine Department of Environmental Protection, as the point person on this initiative.
“This report is really very timely,” Littell said. “Yale University issued a report about a month ago saying that not enough is being done by states and localities on climate change adaptations. We had already approved this resolve to go in.”
The full report is available at the website: climatechange.umaine.edu/mainesclimatefuture.
(Statehouse News Service)