The National Weather Service (NWS) has upgraded a Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning in advance of the weather expected to arrive today as a result of what was once Hurricane Irene. That upgrade means that tropical storm conditions are now imminent (according to the NWS) for Lincoln County, making Irene’s arrival as a tropical storm no longer a question of “if” but “when” and “how much”.
“When” has been pretty well nailed down. Rainfall and strong winds should begin Sunday and continue into early Monday morning.
“How much” is still in question. Beginning Friday, forecasts for the storm track began to indicate a more westerly course for Irene, translating into a milder event for Lincoln County. That westerly trend has continued. While there may be locally heavy rainfall at times, the NWS isn’t forecasting any sort of extended deluge for this storm, with total rainfall amounts in the 2 to 5 inch range.
For those who may have been following Hurricane Irene on television and the Internet, where storm suited reporters give breathless reports as they wade into dark floodwaters while in the background high winds blow heavy rains sideways punctuated by the occasional chunk of flying debris… We don’t have to worry about that kind of storm here in Lincoln County.
The storm will have increased speed while traveling over land, so while areas south of us are suffering hurricane conditions for 24 hours, we will see only (at most) tropical storm conditions for 12 hours or less, according to forecasts.
Moreover, the storm system will have weakened considerably before reaching us, especially with the overland course in the present forecast.
Located on the east side of the storm system, Lincoln County should avoid high rainfall totals. However, there may be a heightened risk of high winds and storm surge as the storm’s counterclockwise rotation accelerates wind velocity and increases water volume flowing up the southeasterly facing coastal rivers such as the Sheepscot and Damariscotta.
One of the most critical times for this event will be during the astronomical tide late Sunday night in Newcastle when the high tide may combine with storm surge and any rainfall run-off to cause some local flooding.
Winds are forecast to begin Sunday from the east-southeast at a sustained velocity of 25 to 30 mph and then shift to the southwest and increase up to 40 mph. Gusts are forecast to reach the 60 mph mark.
Storm surge is presently forecast to be 1 to 1.5 feet, according to the NWS. That surge would combine with a high tide of 11.1 feet forecast for 11:27 p.m. in Newcastle.
Some forecasters have predicted that the storm will pass prior to this high tide, reducing any storm surge during the tidal apex, and any possibility for flooding.
If the storm track continues to drift west, that course would reduce impact on both storm surge and wind velocity.
The Lincoln County News website will continue to follow the progress of this event and post any additional information here as soon as it becomes available.
