Updated Dec. 29 at 3:11 p.m. — National Weather Service 3 p.m. bulletin upgrades alert status to Winter Storm Warning effective immediately and continuing until 4 a.m. Monday. NWS forecast calls for heavy, wet snow falling at a rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour during overnight hours with more rainfall along coast.
Lincoln County residents will see precipitation during an overnight storm beginning late Sunday afternoon, but forecasters are having a hard time agreeing on what form that precipitation might take.
Key to whether residents will see snowfall, rainfall or ice will be the air temperatures, which were forecast on Sunday to be in the low 30’s at noon. However, actual temps in some parts of the county were in the high 30’s (with some reports of low 40’s), causing not only some melting and falling ice, but also some concern that the forecasts might be off. If temps continue to stay warmer than predicted, then the coming precipitation will bring a wintry mix or rain instead of the snowfall originally forecast. Additionally, any snowfall will be of the heavy, wet variety.
Another consideration is that the coming system is an ocean storm, moving up from warmer southern areas, generating ocean effect precipitation from relatively warm coastal waters of 44.1 degrees, according to the 11:50 a.m. reading from the National Oceanic and Atmospherics Administration’s buoy 44007 located 12 nautical miles southeast of Portland.
All of this adds up to the possibility that warmer temps than forecast will bring more rain and wintry mix than snow to Lincoln County, especially coastal areas and peninsulas.
The National Weather Service forecast relies on temps falling into the low 20’s after nightfall on Sunday. A forecast from intellicast.com calls for warmer temps ranging from 35 degrees to 25 degrees during the time period for the storm from late Sunday afternoon to early Monday morning.
While the NWS is forecasting over 6 inches of snowfall with some rainfall near the coast beginning Sunday night and ending Monday morning; the forecasters at intellicast.com are calling for a wintry mix to begin late Sunday afternoon and then develop into freezing rain in the early morning hours of Monday.
The official line, the NWS Winter Weather Advisory issued in regard to this storm, is in effect from 4 p.m. on Sunday to 6 a.m. on Monday. Snowfall totals are forecast to vary based on distance from the coast, with 1 inch near the coast and 6 inches inland.
However, divergent forecasts such as those above are indicative of a highly unpredictable and unstable weather system… One that bears watching as it moves closer.
The Lincoln County News will continue to follow the progress of this event and post any additional information here as soon as it is obtained.
