The confetti was still falling after the presidential election results in November when national media started turning its attention to 2016. Since then, we have heard the incessant drumbeat grow louder with one yet-to-declare politician after another being held up to the light.
In Maine we are seeing a smaller version of this as we look ahead to 2014.
Last week a poll by Public Policy Polling indicated Gov. Paul LePage, whom the company describes as “one of the least popular governors in the country,” would be favored to win a three-way contest for the Blaine House next year.
Their poll indicates LePage would flat out lose a head-to-head contest to any one of several big name Democrats. However, assuming Elliott Cutler, or another strong independent, makes a run for the office, the poll also predicts LePage would win the same way he did in 2010: While the other two candidates divvy up the Democratic and independent votes, LePage squeaks in on strong support from his fellow Republicans.
It’s interesting reading and if you’re so inclined we recommend looking for yourself.
We have no problems with polls in general. In some respects they are useful. This particular poll may be the most accurate one ever taken for all we know, but since it looks almost two years out, it is about as reliable as next week’s weather forecast.
We do, however, have a problem with this ongoing fascination with “the next election.” We just had an election. The seats have barely even warmed to the new occupants yet.
The thing is, the story big media doesn’t report is that campaigns are really good for their business. Politics is really about conflict. Conflict generates interest. Interest generates ratings for broadcasters and eyes on ad copy for publishers.
Outside the campaigns, in addition to media, ancillary businesses like hotels, restaurants, equipment and real estate rental companies all benefit. Inside the campaigns there is an entire industry of partisans, pollsters, consultants and so forth dedicated to making a living in the trenches, year-in and year-out, and everybody but the volunteers gets paid.
For everybody but the true believers and the candidate, and sometimes for the candidate as well, politics is a business proposition. That’s what polls don’t tell you.
