Among the cancellations on Sunday resulting from forecast storm conditions in Lincoln County was the blizzard warning issued by the National Weather Service that was originally to be in effect until 7 a.m. on Monday.
The storm, with dire forecasts of two-foot snowfall totals, fell well short of predictions; leaving many Lincoln County residents wondering, “What blizzard?”
Winds remained blustery into Sunday, blowing the snowdrifts and reducing visibility in some areas, but no power outages were reported in Lincoln County as of noon on Sunday.
Southern Maine still received some significant snowfall totals, according to reports, but areas near Lincoln County should end up with only 2 to 5 inches of accumulation, according to forecasts.
Needless to say, the storm did not organize as anticipated. Just before midnight on Saturday the NWS issued a bulletin calling for notably less snowfall than the 18 to 24 inches originally forecast, bringing the forecast total down to 8 to 12 inches. By daylight on Sunday, it was apparent that even those totals were over estimated.
According to forecasters, a single strong center of low pressure failed to develop when the storm arrived offshore during the overnight hours, and tracked further east-southeast than forecast. Instead, smaller and weaker areas of low pressure – some tracking well out to sea – kept the atmospheric energy spread thin, lessening the storm’s effects.
Nonetheless, NWS maintained a blizzard warning until 11:57 a.m. on Sunday when it was replaced with a much downgraded winter weather advisory and a wind chill advisory.
Regardless of reduced snowfall amounts, winds are still forecast to be high, and temps sub-freezing. Wind chill will be an issue that residents venturing outside should be aware of, with wind chill values possibly sliding down to 20 to 30 degrees below zero, according to the NWS.
This most recent storm was one in a series that seem to be hitting Lincoln County every three to five days since late January. Forecasters have been challenged by each of these, with some of the storms exceeding forecast estimates and others delivering much less weather than anticipated. The reason for this divergence is how the storms are arriving – sweeping in from Canada and over the Great Lakes without much in the way of moisture and development until they end up above the ocean waters offshore of Maine, where they have the potential to develop very rapidly, or not. Or they may track too far south or east to affect Lincoln County. This set of circumstances allows forecasters very little opportunity to get a “real world” observation of the storm’s development before it arrives, instead requiring them to depend on computer generated forecast models and other assets.
Many storms that visit Lincoln County are generated well south and follow a pattern that allows them to begin development in the Gulf Stream waters beginning off Cape Hatteras north to Cape Cod and up to the Gulf of Maine. This is the classic “nor’easter” pattern that allows forecasters a chance to study the storm development some 24 to 48 hours before it arrives in Lincoln County.
Unfortunately, the pattern of storm after storm approaching from the west appears to be ongoing, at least through the near future – snow events are presently in the forecast for Tuesday, Wednesday and Sunday of this week. While none of them are forecast to be significant at this time, that could well change, especially once they actually arrive.
(Note: A change in the national weather pattern may allow some of these storms to dip a bit further south before arriving, making for the possibility that some of them may have a chance to develop offshore to some degree before arriving in Lincoln County.)
In the meantime, Lincoln County residents should probably follow their usual pattern for such events: hope for the best, plan for the worst, and keep a skeptical eye to the sky.
The Lincoln County News will continue to follow the progress of this event and post any additional information here as soon as it is obtained.
